Up to three million UK jobs could be lost to AI over the next ten years, according to the National Foundation For Educational Research (NFER), prompting calls for widespread reskilling programs.
In a new report, the foundation said that roles in at-risk occupations such as administration, secretarial services, customer service, and machine operations are declining at a much faster rate than previously predicted.
While the number of jobs in the labor market as a whole is actually expected to grow by 2035, the study found most growth will be in occupations such as science, engineering, and legal roles.
These jobs require what the NFER sees as “essential” employment skills centered around communication, collaboration, problem-solving, organizing, planning & prioritizing, creative thinking, and information literacy.
“The report’s focus is on what are now widely recognized as the essential employment skills that underpin employability and are increasingly sought after in the evolving world of work. It makes a major contribution to our understanding of how to better value, develop, and support these skills," said Josh Hillman, director of education at the Nuffield Foundation.
“Crucially, it also provides the education system, employers, and policymakers with evidence to help ensure the workforce can continue to build and use them effectively in a dynamic labor market.”
The UK workforce needs to be retrained
Notably, the study revealed that around 3.7 million workers have 'substantial' shortfalls in the six vital employment skills, with the number projected to increase to around seven million by 2035 unless action is taken.
While 45% of UK adults said they currently feel supported by employers to develop new skills, 43% did not. Only 24% said they feel the government supports them to develop new skills, with 66% feeling they aren't currently supported.
To combat this looming shortfall, the foundation called on the government to ramp up support for the adult skills system. This includes increased funding to break down barriers for adults retraining and transitioning from declining occupations into growth sectors.
It should also ensure that HR and management practices help employers and line managers to accurately assess, utilize, and develop their workers’ existing skills.
Meanwhile, researchers said schools should foster essential skills, building them into the Initial Teaching Training and Early Career Framework.
“The time has come to tackle this critical challenge head on, and we all have a role to play. Meeting projected skills shortages means a collective response from government, employers and across the education and skills systems," said Jude Hillary, principal investigator and NFER’s co-head of UK policy and practice.
“We need to strengthen support in the early years, tackle inequalities in schools, strengthen pathways into growing jobs, and rebuild the adult skills system to deliver growth that benefits everyone.”
Jobs will disappear, but more will be created
The NFER study comes hot on the heels of Gartner research that warned of huge labor market changes in the next decade, largely due to widespread AI adoption.
A study from the consultancy found that a range of professions will be hit hard by AI adoption as businesses look to reduce headcount and automate aspects of their operations.
All told, roughly 32 million jobs will be “reconfigured, redesigned, or fused” each year from 2028 onwards. However, while the outlook may appear gloomy for workers, this period of flux is expected to create more jobs, rather than result in a sharp decline.
Upskilling and reskilling will be crucial to ensure this transition period is smooth, according to Gartner, with around 150,000 people each day expected to begin retraining.
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