Large enterprises could be wavering on AI adoption

Has AI already peaked? New research points to a decline in AI adoption rates at large US companies.

Every two weeks, the US Census Bureau surveys 1.2 million American companies, asking a range of questions. Since 2023, that has included a question about whether or not a company made use of AI in the last two weeks.

While the general trend is upwards, there's been a decline in the use of AI for companies with more than 250 employees. That cohort is the group most likely to use AI, according to the bureau, peaking just shy of 14% and falling back down to 12% over summer surveys.

While this represents a small – and perhaps temporary – decline, it does suggest some degree of hesitation on the part of large enterprises, some of which are growing frustrated at poor returns on investment.

"The bottom line is that the biweekly Census data is starting to show a slowdown in AI adoption for large companies," noted Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Academy, in a post on the company's website.

In a post on social media, Arpit Gupta, an associate professor of finance at NYU Stern shared Apollo's chart and was asked what he considered the key takeaway.

Gupta noted that "trillions in AI cap ex should probably be reconsidered."

Those results come as companies continue to spend huge sums on data centers and other infrastructure to support AI rollouts.

Similarly, a report from MIT last month revealed 95% of companies are struggling to deliver financial return, fueling claims of a pending AI ‘bubble’.

AI adoption rates remain strong overall

Across all companies, the picture is a bit different. The 1.2 million companies were asked whether they used any type of AI over the last two weeks, with 9.7% saying yes — an increase from the survey two weeks prior at 8.8%.

However, that result was a significant dip from previous editions, which were trending above 9%. At the end of 2024, the figure was 6.3%, suggesting a slow upward trend.

In the most recent survey, 83.8% said they had not used AI of any type over the last two weeks, with 6.5% of companies reporting they weren't sure.

Indeed, UBS analysis from June noted that growth was steadily increasing — though that was written before the most recent dip.

"This means AI adoption is likely to soon cross the 10% threshold that took US e-commerce 24 years to reach," UBS noted.

Questionable question

These AI usage rates may sound low given the amount of attention the technology has been given of late.

While that may be partly down to hype surrounding the nascent technology, another issue is the phrasing of the question asked by the Census Bureau: "In the last two weeks, did this business use Artificial Intelligence (AI) in producing goods or services?"

Plenty of businesses will be using AI for automating customer service or other administrative tasks, for marketing, or for project marketing, noted one analyst – tasks that respondents may not see as part of directly producing a good or service.

The survey also asks whether the company expects to be using AI in the next six months, again to make products or services. In the most recent poll, 13.7% of all respondents said yes, up from 9.2% at the end of last year.

However, nearly two-thirds still said they don't expect to be using AI within that time frame.

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