Big tech promised developers productivity gains with AI tools – now they’re being rendered obsolete

Coding tools quickly emerged as one of the key use cases in the generative AI boom, with big tech providers promising marked productivity boosts and reduced workloads.

With an AI companion at their side picking up the drudge work, it’s not hard to see why developers would be enthusiastic about them. Research from GitHub last year seemed to back this up.

Developers were flocking to AI coding tools and for good reason: they were unlocking significant benefits working with these tools, saving huge amounts of time in their weekly schedules, and speeding up development processes.

Initial concerns over the quality of AI-generated code were also dissipating, the study noted, with 90% of US-based respondents reporting an improvement in this regard when using AI tools.

All told, the technology heralded a new golden era in the software industry, at least if big tech was to be believed. One of huge productivity boosts and reduced manual toil – and it came at a critical time. Developers were overworked during the pandemic and reported surging levels of burnout and mental health issues.

The reality at this point is the complete opposite, and some might now look back to the pandemic-era churn as a fond memory.

The slow trickle of AI integration has now become a torrent and developers working on AI tools are now finding themselves rendered obsolete by the very platforms and solutions they’ve built.

Microsoft, for example, announced fresh layoffs in May – its second batch in a matter of months. While tech industry workers are no stranger to layoffs at this stage, this latest round hit differently.

Reports from Bloomberg showed a significant portion of the workers set to be cut were operating out of the tech giant’s Redmond headquarters. Moreover, around 40% of these were in software engineering, equivalent to more than 800 roles.

For a company that builds software to begin cutting developers and engineers seems counterintuitive. But this is the new normal those in the profession face. Companies feel the need to justify their huge investment in AI by integrating it across the board, making humans surplus to requirements.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recently revealed that around 30% of the company’s code is now AI generated. Microsoft isn’t alone in this, either. Last year, Sundar Pichai said more than 25% of Google’s internal source code was also AI generated – that’s likely grown since then.

That’s not to say that Google or Microsoft have AI running large parts of the show behind the scenes. Humans are still ‘in the loop’ in some capacity and this code is subject to rigorous scrutiny.

But what this does suggest is that the days of expansive software engineering divisions might be coming to an end, with those left after cuts reduced to caretakers monitoring the output of AI tools designed to usurp them.

The signs have been there all along

It’s not like there haven’t been warning signs for developers in recent years, or for workers spanning a range of professions. Human resources was in the crosshairs from the get-go during the early days of the generative AI boom, with IBM specifically highlighting this as an area ripe for automation.

The messaging from some big tech companies has been telling as well. Last year I discussed the fact that companies were quite obviously seeking ways to reduce headcount to compensate for AI investment – just without actually saying it.

These efforts to cut workers were veiled under the guise of “focusing on high-growth areas”. That same messaging and approach seems to be applied to specific professions, particularly software development.

The moment you hear terms like ‘drudge work’ when referring to core aspects of your role, you should probably start worrying. The same can be said when big tech providers evangelize about your ability to focus on the more “rewarding” aspects of your job, whatever they may be.

While attending Salesforce’s Dreamforce conference in San Francisco last year, this was a common recurring term bandied around by figures at the company – and it conveniently came at the start of Salesforce’s big agentic AI push.

In the months since, we’ve seen comments from CEO Marc Benioff specifically highlighting the potential for AI tools, particularly their own agentic AI solutions, to take over from human workers.

During an appearance on 'The Logan Bartlett Show’ earlier this year, Benioff suggested the company might not need to hire software engineers as a result of AI agents.

His comments on this topic echoed those made by Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who told Joe Rogan that the company could also begin replacing engineers with AI within the next year or so.

It’s not out of the ordinary for industry figures to make bold claims, after all it justifies their strategy and investment in the technology. But the sheer volume of comments like these – and their consistency – should have alarm bells ringing.

Where do developers go now?

There have been small glimmers of hope on the horizon for embattled developers and engineers - but these largely focus on the potential for upskilling.

Research from Gartner last year showed that while AI will have a significant impact on the workforce, those best prepared to ride out the wave of automation will be the ones who adapt and upskill.

Critically, however, the consultancy said 80% of the workforce will need to upskill by 2027 to contend with AI-related skills requirements.

With such a large portion of the workforce expected to shake things up with regard to skills, this seems completely unrealistic. We already have casualties recorded at Microsoft, and there will undoubtedly be more.