In the 33 months since the launch of ChatGPT and the explosion of generative AI there has been a lot of speculation about its impact on the future of work.
While tech companies like Salesforce, Klarna, and Duolingo have talked up their use of generative AI to cut headcount – not to mention OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman's proclamations on the subject – in the broader context of the US labor market it has failed to have any meaningful impact, according to new research from Yale.
Researchers examined two factors: Is the pace of change in the 33 months since ChatGPT's launch any different to that of past periods of early technological change? Is there any evidence of economy-wide employment effects?
They also compared these changes to previous periods of technological change, such as the introduction of the desktop computer into the workplace and the arrival of the internet.
Looking at the change in occupational mix – whether someone has moved jobs, left employment, or entered employment – the rate of change is slightly higher since the launch of ChatGPT compared to computers and the internet but by less than one percentage point.
Are some jobs more influenced by generative AI than others?
There is some variation by business vertical, however. The Yale researchers identified three areas that are more exposed to generative AI than others: financial services, information, and professional and business services.
The information sector – which includes a broad range of activities from newspapers to data processing and movies – has experienced the biggest change in occupational mix since November 2022, when ChatGPT launched. By 32 months post-launch, the change in employment mix was almost 14%, compared to a baseline of just over 4%. Professional and business services, meanwhile, was at approximately 6.5% and financial activities had changed by about 8.5%.
The researchers caution against laying these changes at the feet of generative AI, however.
"Although at first glance these changes may seem attributable to generative AI, the data again suggests that the trends within these industries started before the release of ChatGPT," they said. "In fact, over a broader time horizon, the large shifts in the Information Industry seem to be a feature of the industry itself rather than a consequence of any one technological development."
Ultimately, the researchers concluded that it's too early to say what impact generative AI will really have in the long term.
"The picture of AI's impact on the labor market... is one that largely reflects stability, not major disruption at an economy-wide level," they said. "While generative AI looks likely to join the ranks of transformative, general purpose technologies, it is too soon to tell how disruptive the technology will be to jobs. The lack of widespread impacts at this early stage is not unlike the pace of change with previous periods of technological disruption."
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