This Stanford study shows AI is starting to take jobs – and those identified as highest risk are eerily similar to a recent Microsoft study

AI may already be impacting early-career jobs, particularly roles featuring tasks that can be automated like software developers or customer service, according to a study by Stanford researchers.

In a working paper, Stanford researchers Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen suggested workers in these roles represent the "canaries in the coal mine" when it comes to AI workplace disruption.

"We find that since the widespread adoption of generative AI, early-career workers (ages 22-25) in the most AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13% relative decline in employment even after controlling for firm-level shocks," the paper said.

"In contrast, employment for workers in less exposed fields and more experienced workers in the same occupations has remained stable or continued to grow."

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The researchers noted that overall employment is growing, but jobs for young workers have stalled since 2022.

"In jobs less exposed to AI young workers have experienced comparable employment growth to older workers," the report noted.

"In contrast, workers aged 22 to 25 have experienced a 6% decline in employment from late 2022 to July 2025 in the most AI-exposed occupations, compared to a 6-9% increase for older workers."

What this suggests, the study noted, is that AI is actively impacting roles for younger people while those already in work are continuing to see opportunities. This has been a recurring talking point in recent months, with industry stakeholders warning that entry-level, white collar roles are particularly exposed to the impact of the technology.

But why is AI having such an impact on entry-level work? The study suggested that AI replaces "book learning" but is less able to replace tacit knowledge — "the idiosyncratic tips and tricks that accumulate with experience."

Essentially, that means older workers are harder to replace due to the fact they possess far greater levels of organizational knowledge than those fresh into the workforce.

Stanford AI study points to future opportunities

The report's other core findings included the fact that any employment declines tended to happen in occupations where AI could automate rather than augment human work — indeed, the latter may see growth in work opportunities.

"While we find employment declines for young workers in occupations where AI primarily automates work, we find employment growth in occupations in which AI use is most augmentative," the report noted.

"These findings are consistent with automative uses of AI substituting for labor while augmentative uses do not."

The report also noted that job cuts were more likely than pay reductions, with "little difference" in annual salary across age groups, as of yet at least.

Beyond that, researchers listed example occupations that were least exposed or most exposed to disruption from AI.

When it comes to automation, the most exposed included customer service representatives, software developers, accountants, receptionists, though augmentation could lead to disruption for registered nurses, repair workers and even CEOs, the report suggests.

Those least at risk of AI disruption include people doing in-person work: repair workers, cleaners, taxi drivers, and laborers.

This aligns closely with a recent study from Microsoft on professions exposed to automation, with researchers at the tech giant also highlighting customer service and administrative workers among those most at-risk.

Muddled picture

Various reports suggest a muddled picture of the impact of AI on work. Some say it isn't yet having an impact, including Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, but several high profile tech companies — notably Cisco and Intuit — have pinned the blame for restructuring on AI.

A survey earlier this year suggested more than a third of UK tech leaders have cut staff because of AI adoption — though half said they acted too hastily — and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned that half of entry level jobs are at risk of disappearing entirely within the next five years.

The Stanford researchers believe they're right not just because of their methodology, but because patterns observed in the data didn't start showing up until late 2022, suggesting a notable change.

In this case, they suggest it's the proliferation of generative AI. OpenAI sparked the beginning of the generative AI ‘boom’ in late 2022 with the launch of ChatGPT, and its launch quickly sparked claims of a pending labor market apocalypse as a result of automation.

A study from Goldman Sachs in early 2023, for example, warned hundreds of millions of jobs globally could be impacted as a result of generative AI. While this widespread disruption hasn’t quite materialized, industry stakeholders have since ramped up warnings with the advent of agentic AI.

"While we caution that the facts we document may in part be influenced by factors other than generative AI, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that generative AI has begun to affect entry-level employment," the report notes.

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