A new study claims AI will destroy 10.4 million roles in the US by 2030, more than the number of jobs lost in the Great Recession – but analysts still insist there won’t be a ‘jobs apocalypse’

AI will lead to job losses, new research suggests, but many organizations may end up regretting workforce cuts.

According Forrester’s AI Job Impact Forecast, AI will account for around 6% of job losses in the US between 2025 and 2030, equating to around 10.4 million roles.

JP Gownder, Forrester VP principal analyst, said the scale of the upheaval will eclipse the number of jobs lost during the Great Recession of 2008, which saw 8.7 million people out of work.

There is a notable caveat here, however. Gownder added that a significant portion of roles are expected to be replaced long-term, with new roles taking their place.

"The numbers aren’t directly comparable, since jobs lost to AI are structural and permanent, while those lost during a recession are cyclical and macroeconomic,” Gownder said.

“But no matter how you view it, the numbers are meaningful and worthy of our attention, just not apocalyptic."

Forrester further noted that widespread AI-driven job replacement is unlikely, with the technology instead augmenting jobs and helping to automate a range of workflows and tasks.

This, they said, will affect 20% of US jobs over the next five years - up nearly four-fold since Forrester's 2023 forecast.

Generative AI, including agentic AI solutions, will be responsible for half of AI-related job losses, up from Forrester's last forecast of 29%. It's junior positions, software developers, and customer service representatives that are the jobs most at risk. 

“Over-automation” could come back to bite enterprises

In many cases, the hype surrounding AI is encouraging the over-automation of roles, Forrester warned, leading to expensive pullbacks, damaged reputations, and weakened employee experiences. 

Indeed, researchers predict more than half of layoffs attributed to AI will end up being quietly reversed as companies realize the operational challenges of replacing human talent prematurely. 

"But here’s the dirty little secret of AI and layoffs: every week, we speak to clients telling some version of the following story: 'Our CEO said we are laying off 20% of staff and replacing them with AI – how do we do that?'," said Gownder.

"When we ask if they have a mature, vetted AI app ready to fill in those jobs, nine out of ten times the answer is no, and they haven’t even started. So most of the layoffs are financially-driven, and AI is just the scapegoat, at least today."

This isn’t the first study highlighting a reversal on AI-related job cuts. As ITPro reported last year, a study from Orgvue found 38% of British business leaders made employees redundant due to AI adoption last year.

Yet more than half (55%) later admitted to having acted too hastily, with many facing acute internal talent shortages as a result.

Forrester said slapdash efforts to cut jobs in favor of the technology are short-sighted.

Instead, businesses need to invest in, not replace, human employees – and that means conducting AI training to equip workers with the necessary skills, as well as educating them on the ethical use of AI to drive business growth. 

“We may not be heading for an imminent AI job apocalypse, but how organizations handle AI today will define more than just their future success,” said Gownder.

“To navigate the complexity around the human and AI era, leaders must prioritize governance and invest in their people — treating AI not as a replacement for human talent but as a tool to enhance it."

The research echoes findings from Gartner late last year that from 2028 onwards, roughly 32 million jobs a year will be reconfigured, redesigned, or fused.

Around 150,000 people will need to be upskilled and supported in new ways of working every day, they said. Gartner’s position on workforce upheaval also mirrors that by Forrester, with analysts telling ITPro at the time that no “jobs apocalypse” will unfold.

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