CEOs aren't seeing any AI productivity gains, yet some tech industry leaders are still convinced AI will destroy white collar work within two years

Most companies are yet to record any AI productivity gains despite widespread adoption of the technology.

That's according to a massive survey by the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which asked 6,000 executives from a range of firms across the US, UK, Germany, and Australia how they use AI.

The study found 70% of companies actively use AI, but the picture is different among execs themselves. Among top executives – including CFOs and CEOs – a quarter don't use the technology at all, while two-thirds say they use it for 1.5 hours a week at most.

Over the last three years, nearly nine-in-ten firms said their use of AI had no impact on employment or productivity.

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That damning result fits with previous research from MIT, which found 95% of AI pilots failed to deliver productivity gains, as well as a study from the Danish National Bureau of Economic Research which found little impact on productivity.

AI productivity gains are negligible

The NBER survey found that across the four countries surveyed, 69% of businesses made use of AI in some way – led by the US at 78%, the UK at 71%, Germany at 65% and Australia at 59% – with respondents predicting that figure will climb to 75% within three years.

Companies that are larger, more productive and pay better are more likely to use AI than "older firms and firms with older directors", the survey noted.

"The most commonly cited uses are ‘text generation using large language models’ followed by ‘visual content creation’ and ‘data processing using machine learning’," the survey added.

When it comes to employment savings, 90% of execs said they'd seen no impact from AI over the last three years, with 89% saying they saw no productivity boost, either.

The report noted that previous studies have found large productivity gains in specific settings – in particular customer support and writing tasks. However, other estimates on wider economic gains suggest a total factor productivity gain of 1.5 percentage points over a decade.

"Despite these large gains in specific tasks and firm values, the economy-wide productivity gains from AI are less certain," the report noted.

What's next for enterprise productivity

Despite the lack of impact to date, business leaders still predict AI will start to boost productivity and reduce the number of employees needed in the coming years.

Respondents predict a 1.4% productivity boost and 0.8% increase in output thanks to the technology over the next three years, for example.

Yet the NBER survey also reveals a "sizable gap in expectations", with senior execs saying AI would cut employment by 0.7% over the next three years — which the report said would mean 1.75 million fewer jobs.

Meanwhile, staff predict a 0.5% increase in employment over the same period thanks to AI.

White collar work will feel the impact first

The NBER study comes hot on the heels of recent comments by Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman, who predicted the technology will hit “white collar” work the hardest in the next few years.

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Suleyman said AI will reach “human-level performance” within the next 12 to 18 months, allowing enterprises to replace workers with the technology en masse.

“I think we’re going to have a human-level performance on most if not all professional tasks,” Suleyman told the Financial Times.

“So white-collar work where you’re sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person, most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI in the next 12 to 18 months.”

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