Global PC market primed for rebound in Q4 2023, Gartner says

The global PC market is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2023 as the beleaguered industry begins a return to growth. 

Worldwide PC shipments totaled 64.3 million in the third quarter of 2023, according to analysis from Gartner, marking a 9% decrease compared to the same period last year and the eighth consecutive quarterly decline. 

However, the consultancy said that there is ample evidence that the lengthy slump has finally “bottomed out” and that a return to growth can be expected in the coming quarters. 

Mikako Kitagawa, director analyst at Gartner, said heightened demand in several industries points to a revival for the market, but warned enterprise demand is still lagging.  

“Seasonal demand from the education market boosted shipments in the third quarter, although enterprise PC demand remained weak, offsetting some growth,” he said. “Vendors also made consistent progress towards reducing PC inventory, with inventory expected to return to normal by the end of 2023, as long as holiday sales do not collapse.”

“There is evidence that the PC market’s decline has finally bottomed out,” Kitagawa added. 

Major suppliers still feeling the pinch

The global PC space remained largely unchanged in terms of market share during the last quarter, Gartner found, with several major suppliers reporting poor results. 

Apple's shipments declined sharply compared to a year ago, the consultancy said. 

This was, in part, due to its shipment volumes increasing significantly across Q3 2022 after supply disruptions eased in the wake of the pandemic. 

Dell also reported a sixth consecutive quarter of shipment decline. This continued decline was largely influenced by weak enterprise PC demand. 

Other major suppliers, such as Lenovo and HP, did report promising results during the previous quarter, however. 

Although Lenovo recorded yet another year-on-year decline in shipments, this was limited to a single-digit decrease, Gartner said. 

The promising results from Lenovo come amid a period of heightened optimism for the supplier, which anticipates a return to pre-pandemic sales volumes in the coming year.  

In August, the firm said it believes it is “well-positioned” for a year-on-year recovery in the latter part of 2023 and early 2024. 

HP was the only vendor to report year-on-year growth during Q3 2023, Gartner said, with shipments increasing across all regions. 

“The good news for PC vendors is that the worst could be over by the end of 2023,” said Kitagawa. 

“The business PC market is ready for the next replacement cycle, driven by the Windows 11 upgrades. Consumer PC demand should also begin to recover as PCs purchased during the pandemic are entering the early stages of a refresh cycle.”

Looking ahead, Gartner projects that the global PC market will experience 4.9% growth across 2024 across both the business and consumer segments.