‘This is the lowest level of device shipments witnessed in over a decade’: Memory cost increases have reached a critical level – PC sales are set to drop by 10% in 2026 as enterprises stretch out device lifetimes

Surging memory costs are expected to severely impact global PC shipments as enterprises hold on to ageing devices, according to Gartner.

New figures published the consultancy point to a 10.4% decline in PC shipments worldwide across 2026, with smartphone sales also expected to dip by 8.4%.

This decline comes in direct response to growing concerns about memory costs, according to Gartner. The firm expects a 130% increase in both DRAM and solid-state drive (SSD) prices by the end of the year, thereby resulting in a 17% surge in PC prices.

Smartphone prices are also expected to jump by around 13% compared to 2025.

Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, said skyrocketing prices paint a grim picture for hardware buyers over the next year and could see enterprises and consumers alike stretch device lifetimes.

“This is the lowest level of device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles.”

Indeed, Gartner expects PC lifetimes to increase by 15% for business buyers and up to 20% for consumers by the end of the year – which could have longer-term ramifications.

While upgrade delays might soften financial blows for businesses and consumers, stretching device lifetimes carries significant security risks and could add extra burden in terms of management as devices age.

Memory costs will hit lower tier devices

Notably, Gartner warned that with rising memory prices, this could facilitate a sharpened focus on premium devices, with entry-level PCs facing a degree of obsolescence.

PC memory costs are projected to peak at 23% of the overall bill-of-materials (BOM), referring to the list of various components required to build a computer.

Earlier this week, HP warned the cost of RAM in a PC now accounts for around 35% of the overall cost of building a device.

According to reports from The Register, the cost of RAM in the prior quarter stood at around 15% to 18%, meaning the price of memory has doubled.

Atwal warned that surging costs will impact vendors’ abilities to absorb costs and ultimately make “low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable”.

“We expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028,” he said. “In addition, rising AI PC prices will delay the projected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until 2028.”

Smartphone sales are also expected to follow suit in this regard, according to Gartner.

The consultancy said this trend will “disproportionately affect entry-level smartphones, leading buyers to choose refurbished or second-hand models or keep their phones longer”.

Vendors need to take the hit

Device vendors will be forced to contend with tumultuous price dynamics over the next year, and they’re going to have to take a few blows.

Gartner said PC vendors should be “prepared to accept a unit volume decline” in a bid to sustain some degree of profitability. Those who chase “price-sensitive” buyers could end up eroding margins.

“Overall, device vendors and channels face a critical window in the first half of 2026 to optimize pricing and protect margins before component inflation compresses profitability from the second quarter onwards,” said Atwal.

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